| "Rumor driven oil market! After a tight day of trading, oil spiked in the afterhours market, reaching as high as $68 on rumors of a skirmish between U.S. and Iranian forces. Fortunately it was the white collar types on the trading floor with the itchy trigger finger, and not anyone actually holding a gun over there." " The U.S. military and State Department officials said they had no information about a naval incident between Iran and the U.S. Rumors that Britain had staged a rescue attempt were also found to be unfounded. However helping to keep the conflict premium in prices, the U.S. Navy yesterday started the largest show of force in the Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Associated Press reported." "Oil is looking to open up $1.76 this morning, and will likely reach $65 and higher during the day. This will be short-lived unless something actually happens, and I?m more inclined to add to put positions. I?ll take a few opportunistic long trades this morning, but it will be " " after I see how the market opens (only once the initial surge is out of the way)." "Inventory Expectations (from Reuters) (not sure how much inventories are going to matter on a day like today):" "Crude -- up 1.6 million barrels. Probably the most important number of the three right now. If oil imports keep rising, it will put the kibosh on any credibility OPEC might have had. When the Iran thing blows over, if imports are actually higher than they were last fall, crude will come in quickly." "Gasoline -- down 1.8 million barrels. Watching the demand numbers here, which are up, but not as much as the talking heads would have you believe. I?ll review that tomorrow, but suffice it to say that we?re not short of gasoline inventories for this time of year, and a rising utilization (see the Snafu page for more of El D?s great finds) will right this ship in time for stronger demand later this spring." " Natural gas is up with oil. Very resilient and likely to trade higher with oil, although what logic applies there I?m not sure outside of ?a rising tide lifts all boats.? The April contract was strong all day yesterday closing up $0.25 to $7.50." " -- these are stocks I have queued up for a trade if I think the rally is sustainable or at least worth a quick trade: Apache Corp. (NYSE: " "). You can make money being long anything energy on a morning like this one, but these names are highly volatile and trade closer to oil than most. Note that if the initial surge fails, the same list works equally well (except perhaps for
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