| " On an island off the north coast of Australia, as surfer Charley Williams begins to cough, he is unaware that several dead seagulls and a dead dog lie near him. They are infected with a new form of flu virus, later determined to be an H3N7 mutated variant named "Riptide." Fellow surfer Ames Smith leaves the island and boards a plane to Los Angeles. While on board, he develops a high fever, coughs up blood and dies. The plane and its passengers are quarantined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A passenger escapes and spreads the virus. Five days later, as several more passengers escape, L.A. has 154 dead and 1,400 sickening. Schools and shops are closed, paper masks are everywhere, mass graves are dug. The city is placed under quarantine. The anti-viral drug "Tana-Flu" is found to be largely ineffective, and a more useful newer drug, "CoToxil," is in short supply. As Riptide spreads, the governor declares martial law and brings in the National Guard. The CDC finally determines that antibodies against tuberculosis bacteria prevent this virus from attaching to the lung, so the blood of TB survivors can be used as a vaccine. The world is saved." "Isn't the H5N1 bird flu our greatest risk for a massive pandemic? What is the typical incubation period for a deadly influenza? Are masks or quarantine effective? Is coughing up blood (hemoptysis) characteristic of a highly virulent influenza such as the devastating, 1918 Spanish flu or this new Riptide virus? Does a sudden "antigenic shift" (as a scientist suggests) bring about the pandemic because the public lacks immunity to the new virus? Can TB antibodies protect against a deadly flu?" " Though the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza strain has been much publicized and has worried many scientists, it is still primarily a disease in birds, and may not mutate sufficiently to cause the next human pandemic. "If we put all our eggs in this one basket, we can easily miss a mutation in a different virus which becomes the next pandemic strain," says flu researcher Dr. Jeffrey Taubenberger of the National Institutes of Health. The movie sends an important message to the public when it shows a non-H5N1 influenza transforming into the pandemic virus." " The incubation time ? or period between exposure and the onset of symptoms ? for influenza is two to four days, sometimes longer. The film depicts this waiting period fairly accurately. In real life, scientists are not always sure exactly how influenza is transmitted, and it is unlikely that paper masks would provide much of a barrier to infection. More sophisticated N-95 respirator masks are only occasionally shown in the movie and must be fitted properly to be effective. The movie correctly illustrates the significant downside to quarantining whole regions (as opposed to the more effective strategy of isolating sick patients and their contacts), where people under suspicion become fearful and may
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